Pacific Basin Macro 2026
The reference barometer for executives and investors with exposure to Chile, Ecuador, Peru and Colombia: quarterly paths, sovereign risk and sector outlook by country.
There is no single Andean market. There are four separate cycles.
Treating Chile like Ecuador is the costliest mistake on a first entry into the region. The barometer puts the four economies side by side, on the same variables, so the comparison is direct.
| Country | GDP 2025 (proj.) | Inflation | Risk profile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chile | 2.4% | 4.4% | Medium · copper and lithium |
| Ecuador | 3.2% | 1.2% | High political · dollarized |
| Peru | 3.1% | On target | Best Andean risk/reward |
| Colombia | 2.6% | 5.1% | High fiscal · deficit −7.1% of GDP |
Projections as of Q1 2026. Quarterly paths and scenarios: in the full report.
Five blocks
- Quarterly GDP paths, four countries
- Inflation and monetary policy: 2026 scenarios
- Fiscal sustainability and sovereign debt risk
- Political risk calendar: elections and reforms
- Sectors with the most upside, by economy
Base case · 60%
Every scenario ends with explicit portfolio implications: bond duration, sector exposure, FX hedging and entry and exit signals.
🔒 Country detail in the full report
For anyone who decides before the change reaches cash flow
- CFOs and treasury teams with operations in the region.
- Family offices and funds weighing a first entry.
- Banks and exporters that need one framework to compare countries.
$3,800or $2,800 as an add-on to the Pacific Basin Matrix. Comparable single reports from research houses: $3,000–5,000.
Projections as of Q1 2026; forward-looking data may change. This material is not investment advice. Pacific Basin Intelligence Unit · a unit of JFCarpio.com.